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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 8A
2017-08-31 19:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 311741 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER NEARS CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 110.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Mulege * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * Baja California peninsula north of Mulege to Bahia De Los Angeles * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 110.0 West. Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, with a turn toward the northwest expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next few hours, and then will move over the peninsula through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next few hours. Weakening is expected tonight through Friday night as the center moves over the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The Cabo San Lucas International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h), while a Mexican automated station near Cabo San Lucas recently reported sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) at an elevation of 735 ft (244 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the southern portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning area today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in mainland Mexico starting later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas late Friday or Friday night. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-08-31 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 14:45:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 15:34:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-31 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311439 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Lidia has become better organized this morning, with interlocking convective bands forming around a much better defined center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is close to 55 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, and this could be conservative. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/8 kt between a mid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, a mid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should become the main steering influence and force Lidia to turn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 through 5. While there remains some spread in the speed, the guidance is tightly clustered on the track, and the new forecast is similar to both the previous forecast and the various consensus models. Additional strengthening is likely today before the center moves close to the Baja California peninusla, and while the chance of Lidia becoming a hurricane is low it is non-zero. Weakening is expected after 12 hours due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center. Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by day 3 due to its interaction with land, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters of the California Current on days 4 and 5. Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant hazard over these areas. In addition, the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher elevations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.3N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.6N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 26.1N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 27.6N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z 30.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 30.5N 122.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-08-31 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 311439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 1 1( 2) 10(12) 20(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 87 5(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 28 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAN JOSE CABO 50 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 44 38(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) LA PAZ 50 4 28(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LA PAZ 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 2 18(20) 40(60) 3(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) LORETO 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LORETO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) HUATABAMPO 34 2 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 34 9 11(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CULIACAN 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-31 16:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LIDIA APPROACHING THE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 the center of Lidia was located near 22.3, -109.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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