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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-01 10:47:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 Cloud top temperatures have been warming during the past few hours, and the convective pattern appears to be losing some organization as Lidia interacts with the high terrain of Baja California Sur. Still, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T3.5, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Recent ASCAT passes missed Lidia's core, but they did indicate a large swath of tropical-storm-force winds extending over the southern Gulf of California. Fixes suggest that Lidia has been moving more slowly during the past 6-12 hours, and the motion estimate is now toward the northwest (325 deg) at 7 kt. The storm is embedded between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on a northwestward course for the next three days. Lidia's center is likely to move onshore south of Cabo San Lazaro later this morning and then cross on/off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula through 36 hours. While most of the track models are fairly well clustered, the GFS remains the fastest model, and the ECMWF is still one of the slowest. The new NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, closest to TVCN and HCCA. Lidia is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, especially as the circulation continues to move over the Baja California peninsula. However, tropical-storm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for the next 36 hours. Once Lidia permanently moves off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, it will be located over the cold waters of the California Current and will likely be unable to generate deep convection. For that reason, it should be a remnant low by 48 hours. After that time, Lidia will begin to interact with a deep-layer low located off the coast of California, and it is now expected to dissipate or be absorbed by that low by day 4. Since Lidia's center is expected to move onshore soon, and the storm is not likely to strengthen in the short time beforehand, the government of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for southern Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.8N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST 36H 02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-01 10:46:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA'S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 the center of Lidia was located near 23.8, -111.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-01 10:46:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...LIDIA'S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 111.0W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula northward to San Jose de Las Palomas, on the east coast northward to Isla San Luis, and along the coast of mainland Mexico northward to Puerto Libertad. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Baja California Sur, as well as the Tropical Storm Warning south of Altata on the coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this direction with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the Pacific waters Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km), especially to the northeast and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa, and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the Desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-01 10:46:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010846 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 12(12) 35(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 3 67(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) P ABREOJOS 50 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) P ABREOJOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 86 11(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LORETO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 1 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUAYMAS 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-09-01 10:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS... ON THE EAST COAST NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN LUIS... AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTATA ON THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO ISLA SAN LUIS * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LIDIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 111.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......170NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 111.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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