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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-31 04:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310237 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Satellite images indicate that the circulation, although broad, is more consolidated, and convection has become more concentrated near the center. However, there is no evidence of an inner core at this time. Data from a unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft currently in the area of Lidia, and observations from the Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, were very helpful in determining the structure of the cyclone. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 35 kt. Lidia is within a very favorable environment of low shear, and the ocean is warm. The only factor against a higher intensification rate appears to be the large size of the cyclone. The NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Lidia has a chance to be near hurricane strength before the cyclone begins to interact with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, gradual weakening should then begin. The overall circulation is still moving toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 kt. Lidia is being steered by the flow between a weak ridge over Mexico and a weak cyclonic gyre to the west. This pattern will persist, and the cyclone should continue on the same general track for the next 2 days. Once the cyclone reaches the central portion of Baja California peninsula, a ridge to the north is forecast to amplify, and this flow pattern will force a weaker Lidia on a more west-northwest track toward cold waters. It is important to emphasize that Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occuring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. These rains are already causing threatening flash floods and mudslides and regardless of exactly how strong Lidia becomes, this should be a significant hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 20.7N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 22.8N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 23.8N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/0000Z 25.5N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/0000Z 28.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0000Z 29.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-31 04:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Lidia was located near 20.7, -109.2 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 6
2017-08-31 04:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 109.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo * mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday, and moving across the peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lidia still has the opportunity to be near hurricane strength near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area in mainland Mexico starting late on Thursday, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico. These swells will reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-08-31 04:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 310237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 21 57(78) 7(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 28(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 18 60(78) 9(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 23(23) 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 1 33(34) 34(68) 10(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 33(48) 11(59) X(59) X(59) LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) 1(22) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 8(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 14 5(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-08-31 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 310236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO SAN EVARISTO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.5N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 114.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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