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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-01 01:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA HESITATES JUST SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 the center of Lidia was located near 22.7, -110.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 9A
2017-09-01 01:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312333 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 600 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...LIDIA HESITATES JUST SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 110.2W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to San Juan De Las Palomas * Baja California peninsula north of Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 110.2 West. Lidia has moved very little during the past couple of hours, but is expected to resume a north-northwest track near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight and continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or over the Baja California peninsula through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected this evening. Thereafter, weakening is forecast as the circulation interacts with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. Surface observations indicate that tropical-storm conditions are occurring over the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. Cabo San Lucas Marina recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning area tonight through Friday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in mainland Mexico through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas Friday night or Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-08-31 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 20:39:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 21:29:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-31 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite imagery indicates that Lidia continues to become better organized, with convective bands now wrapping most of the way around a ragged clear-air center. Recent surface observations from the Cabo San Lucas area support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt, although it is unclear how much terrain enhancement of these winds is occurring. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335/7 kt between a mid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should become the main steering influence from 48-120 h, forcing Lidia to turn northwestward and eventually westward. The guidance has become somewhat less tightly spread, as the GFS is currently a right outlier showing a motion into the northern Gulf of California. Given the lack of support for this scenario from the other models, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track and a little south of the consensus models Additional strengthening is possible this evening before the center moves over the Baja California peninsula, and while the chance of Lidia becoming a hurricane is low it is still non-zero. Weakening is expected after 12 h due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center. Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h due to interaction with land and cold water, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula at 96 and 102 h. Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant hazard over these areas. In addition, the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher elevations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 28.2N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 03/1800Z 30.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z 30.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 30.5N 123.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-08-31 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ABREOJOS 34 2 5( 7) 34(41) 6(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 89 6(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) LA PAZ 50 41 10(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) LA PAZ 64 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 14 41(55) 19(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) LORETO 50 X 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LORETO 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GUAYMAS 34 3 5( 8) 11(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LOS MOCHIS 34 19 7(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CULIACAN 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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