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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)

2017-09-01 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LIDIA RESUMES ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SPREADING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 the center of Lidia was located near 23.3, -110.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 10

2017-09-01 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...LIDIA RESUMES ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SPREADING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 110.4W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to San Juan De Las Palomas * Baja California peninsula north of Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 110.4 West. Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or over the Baja California peninsula through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast, but Lidia is anticipated to remain a tropical storm during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning area through Friday night. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the hurricane watch area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in mainland Mexico through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas Friday night or Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2017-09-01 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 1 X( 1) 23(24) 16(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ABREOJOS 34 1 10(11) 44(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LA PAZ 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 28 53(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) LORETO 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 1 1( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CULIACAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 10

2017-09-01 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JUAN DE LAS PALOMAS * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO ISLA SAN LUIS * MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LIDIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 110.4W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 110.4W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.4N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.3N 113.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.7N 115.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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