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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-08-23 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Conventional satellite imagery shows continued deterioration of Kenneth's cloud pattern. A moderate southwesterly wind shear regime and oceanic temperatures of less than 24.5C have certainly taken its toll on the cyclone. A compromise of the subjective and objective intensity estimates is the basis of lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. The aforementioned shear and cool water, along with a continued intruding stable air mass from the north, should result in a gradual spin down of Kenneth with weakening to a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipation in 5 days. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN and Decay-SHIPS models, and reflects the previous advisory's weakening trend. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt. Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward during the next 36-48 hours in a break in a subtropical ridge created by a high amplitude upper-level trough extending northeastward from the eastern Hawaiian Islands. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a vertically shallow remnant low and move within the lower tropospheric southeasterly flow. There is some increasing spread in the global models beyond day 3. The UKMET and GFS indicate a more accelerated rate of weakening than the ECMWF. Consequently, the weaker Kenneth reflected in the UKMET/GFS decreases significantly in forward speed and turns west-northwestward in the shallow steering current while a more vertically coherent cyclone in the ECMWF continues northwestward with little reduction in speed. The NHC track forecast is a blend of both of these solutions and is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 23.5N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 26.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 27.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 28.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 29.4N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 30.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-23 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH DETERIORATING QUICKLY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Kenneth was located near 23.5, -134.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 20
2017-08-23 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...KENNETH DETERIORATING QUICKLY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 134.3W ABOUT 1545 MI...2490 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 134.3 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-08-23 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 70 7(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 25N 135W 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 20
2017-08-23 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 134.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 134.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.6N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.4N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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