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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 17
2017-08-22 16:30:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221430 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 133.1W ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 133.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth is likely to become a tropical storm later today and weaken to a tropical depression by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-08-22 16:30:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221430 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 133.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 133.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 133.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-22 10:41:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:41:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 09:25:36 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-08-22 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220837 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is quickly weakening this morning. Recent microwave images show that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level center is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to moderate southwesterly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, which is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers. The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the next day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today, and become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance and the previous advisory. Kenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its east and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is predicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The track models are in excellent agreement through 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens and becomes post-tropical. The official track forecast is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous NHC advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward based on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-08-22 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220837 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 1 5( 6) 42(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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