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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 18
2017-08-22 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 ...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 133.6W ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 133.6 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth is likely to become a tropical depression by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-08-22 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.6W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.6W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 133.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 133.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-22 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 14:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 15:25:49 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-08-22 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221431 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken. Using a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set to 70 kt. Continued weakening is likely as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough to the west of Kenneth. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay rapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in 48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit to the southwest of the mid-level center. The initial motion is now estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast or reasoning. Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the next few days. Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward through the break until later in the forecast period when the shallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the low-level flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-22 16:30:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 20.9, -133.1 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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