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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-08-23 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-22 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 20:41:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 20:41:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-08-22 22:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in coverage and intensity. The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs below 25 deg C, and continues to weaken. Using a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength. Continued weakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a depression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner. The initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt. There is no need to make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory package. Kenneth should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough near 140W longitude. Later in the forecast period, the shallow vortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is only slightly to the right of the consensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-08-22 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 2 64(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 25N 135W 50 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 135W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-22 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 21.8, -133.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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