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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2017-08-22 04:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220239 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 35(40) 26(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-22 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 19.2, -132.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 15

2017-08-22 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 132.1W ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 132.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 15

2017-08-22 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220238 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 132.1W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 132.1W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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