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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-23 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:40:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 03:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-08-23 04:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth continues to slowly weaken. The eye feature that was evident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to southerly shear. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 55-60 kt range. Assuming some weakening since the time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Kenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and moving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening, and the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low in 36 hours. The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as depicted by the global models. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the west side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-08-23 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 41 45(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 25N 135W 50 2 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-23 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 22.6, -134.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 19
2017-08-23 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 ...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 134.0W ABOUT 1535 MI...2465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 134.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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