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Remnants of Karen Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-09-27 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 272034 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 58.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-27 16:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics
2019-09-27 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 14:41:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:24:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-27 16:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 271440 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-27 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Karen was located near 28.8, -59.6 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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