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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-26 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 262035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049 indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by day 5. Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours, and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5. This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.2N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-26 22:34:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 262034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-26 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 27.2, -62.9 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 19
2019-09-26 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 262034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-26 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 262034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 62.9W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 62.9W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 62.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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