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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-26 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260834 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side. Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features. Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models, but poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF guidance. The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday, followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies closest to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 25.5N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-26 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 08:33:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 09:24:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-26 10:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 260832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-26 10:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 25.5, -63.5 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 17
2019-09-26 10:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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