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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-25 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 64.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 64.3 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-25 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 252036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-25 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 252035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 64.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-25 16:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 14:52:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 15:31:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-25 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 21.7, -64.9 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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