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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 22
2019-09-27 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 271439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of low pressure by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Advisory Number 22
2019-09-27 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271439 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 59.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-27 10:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 08:51:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:24:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-27 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 981 WTNT42 KNHC 270850 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening, the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower. Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner. Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about four days. It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged (055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will continue to move on this general heading through this morning before it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 28.3N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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karen
Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-27 10:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 270847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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