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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-09-26 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 63.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-26 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:35:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:35:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-26 04:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are still occuring in the southeast quadrant. Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so. A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile upper-level winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-26 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 24.4, -63.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-26 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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