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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2019-09-27 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 270232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)

2019-09-27 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 27.8, -62.1 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 20

2019-09-27 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 270231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It should then begin to move westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 20

2019-09-27 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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