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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-27 10:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Karen was located near 28.3, -61.2 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-27 10:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 551 WTNT32 KNHC 270846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 21
2019-09-27 10:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270844 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-27 04:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 02:35:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 03:24:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-27 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 270233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today. In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low. Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in 3 days or so as forecast by global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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