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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-26 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 26.6, -63.3 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-26 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 261453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 63.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 63.3 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through this evening. Karen is then forecast to make a slow clockwise loop, ultimately moving westward by early Sunday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast by the weekend, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-26 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 261453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-26 16:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 261453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Karen has been maintaining a cluster of convection to the west of its center, but visible satellite images and wind data from NOAA buoy 40149 to the northeast suggest that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. This structure has been confirmed by a late-arriving ASCAT pass, and that data also show that Karen is producing winds to 40 kt within the deep convection. Karen is embedded in the flow between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low which is slowly retrograding westward over the Bahamas. This is maintaining a north-northeastward motion of 015/12 kt. The central Atlantic high is expected to weaken over the next 2 days, while a new high develops over the western Atlantic, causing Karen to make a clockwise loop well to the southeast of Bermuda. Once the western Atlantic high becomes established, Karen is then expected to move generally westward on days 3 through 5. There have been no significant changes among the track models, and the new NHC track forecast is therefore very similar to the previous one. Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The dynamical models--which we're now heavily favoring in our forecasts--are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5 while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which should keep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a trough of low pressure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 26.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-26 16:53:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 261453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 63.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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