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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-26 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 260233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-26 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 63.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-25 22:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 20:38:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 21:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-25 22:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karen found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR-measured winds of 34 kt. Although those surface winds were coincident with some heavy rains, which makes them questionable, it is assumed that there are still some tropical-storm-force winds somewhere within the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Karen has turned toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 015/12 kt. The cyclone is positioned between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low spinning just east of the Bahamas. The steering flow between these two features should keep Karen on a generally northeastward trajectory during the next 48 hours. Around that time, a blocking ridge is expected to build to the north of Karen, causing it to make a clockwise loop and move west-southwestward by days 4 and 5. Compared to the previous cycle, the track models are allowing Karen to get farther to the northeast before it makes its loop, which ends up slowing down the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast points. Even with that change, however, the forecast path of Karen is relatively unchanged from before. It's probably time to put more weight on the dynamical models for Karen's future intensity. The cyclone has continued to struggle in its environment, which is essentially what those models have been indicating all along. Even the statistical-dynamical models, which are explicitly showing strengthening, indicate that the environment won't be very favorable, with convergence aloft and a dry mid-level air mass. Because of those factors, and the lower initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered considerably from this morning's forecast. It still allows for the possibility of some strengthening, but if model trends continue, the official forecast could be lowered further in subsequent advisories. And if the global models are correct, Karen could even lose deep convection, and hence become post-tropical, in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-25 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 22.9, -64.3 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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