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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-16 07:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL CARLOS MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.3, -103.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 22A
2015-06-16 07:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160548 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...SMALL CARLOS MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 103.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 103.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a north-northwestward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring Carlos to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Thursday morning, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-16 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 02:32:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 02:34:35 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Satellite images suggest that Carlos is maintaining its intensity this evening. The center of the compact hurricane is estimated to be embedded on the north side of a persistent area of deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt, which is what the earlier aircraft data suggested as well. Carlos remains a very small tropical cyclone. The data measured by the Hurricane Hunters earlier today and a ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated that the tropical storm force winds extended no more than 40 n mi from the center with hurricane force winds confined to a tiny area around the center. The northerly shear currently affecting Carlos is expected to lessen tomorrow while the hurricane remains over warm water. These environmental factors would typically support strengthening. However, most of the models show Carlos weakening or dissipating during the next few days. This weakening shown in the models is possibly due to the interaction with land and the higher terrain of Mexico and some drier air. It is also possible that the models are having difficultly with Carlos given its small size compared to their resolutions. The official intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one, but does show Carlos becoming a remnant low sooner than previously predicted. Carlos is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur on Tuesday followed by a north- northwestward motion on Wednesday when the storm moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf of Mexico. The models that don't dissipate Carlos have generally shifted to the left, and the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS A COMPACT HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.2, -103.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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