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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2015-06-16 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160845 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 28(30) 8(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 3 18(21) 5(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-16 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.4, -103.9 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 23

2015-06-16 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160844 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 23

2015-06-16 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160844 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 103.9W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 103.9 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected Wednesday morning and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring Carlos to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to commence on Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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