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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-28 05:00:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 03:00:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 03:28:21 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-28 04:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 299 FOPZ15 KNHC 280258 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 2(33) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) 1(31) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 48(53) 26(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 5(47) X(47) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-28 04:58:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 270 WTPZ45 KNHC 280258 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Rosa has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several hours, with a distinct and warm eye noted on satellite images along with deep eyewall convection. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates gives an initial wind speed estimate of 125 kt, making Rosa the seventh category 4 hurricane of the very busy 2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season. It is worth noting that this value ties 2015 for the highest observed seasonal total in the basin during the satellite era. The hurricane still has a chance to intensify further given that it is still over warm waters within light shear. By the weekend, however, Rosa will encounter more marginal SSTs, and the shear will likely increase. These conditions should cause a significant weakening of the hurricane by early next week, and for Rosa to fall back to a tropical storm by Tuesday. The intensity forecast isn't particularly confident at long range because of the possibility of a trough interaction somewhat offsetting the effects of cool eastern Pacific waters and dry stable air. So far the guidance is fairly consistent, and the forecast continues to show steady weakening as Rosa approaches Baja California. Rosa continues moving at 265 deg, now at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States is forecast to weaken and move eastward over the next couple of days as a mean mid-tropospheric trough forms near the west coast of the US. This synoptic pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to gradually turn northward over that time, and eventually move to the northeast due to Rosa getting caught up into southwestern flow ahead of the trough. While there are still some notable speed differences in the model guidance, the overall trend is for a faster solution, which is consistent with a more vertically deep system feeling the stronger mid-level flow. The model consensus continues the faster trend, and the new forecast follows suit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.9N 116.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 36.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-28 04:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA BECOMES THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 the center of Rosa was located near 16.9, -116.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 12
2018-09-28 04:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 763 WTPZ35 KNHC 280258 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...ROSA BECOMES THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 116.7W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday and a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in strength is forecast overnight, with some slow weakening anticipated by Saturday, and a larger decrease in wind speed expected early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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