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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-28 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 160 WTPZ25 KNHC 281448 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-28 10:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 08:40:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 09:28:18 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-28 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL ROSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 the center of Rosa was located near 16.9, -117.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 13
2018-09-28 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 344 WTPZ35 KNHC 280837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL ROSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 117.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 117.3 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night and a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening anticipated by Saturday, and further weakening at a faster rate expected early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-28 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 304 FOPZ15 KNHC 280837 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 1(33) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 34(45) 1(46) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) X(29) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 1 12(13) 61(74) 4(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 33(41) 3(44) X(44) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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