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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2018-10-01 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 169 FOPZ15 KNHC 010233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) YUMA AZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 13 21(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 24

2018-10-01 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 780 WTPZ25 KNHC 010233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 115.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 114.1W...NEAR THE SONORA COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.2N 112.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-10-01 01:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 25.6, -118.0 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 23A

2018-10-01 01:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 230 WTPZ35 KNHC 302332 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...ROSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 118.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. An automated weather station on Isla Alijos, located about 180 miles (290 km) off the coast of Baja California Sur, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: From late Sunday through Wednesday Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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