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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-30 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 20:34:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 20:34:56 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-09-30 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 534 WTPZ45 KNHC 302033 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Rosa, and found peak 700-mb flight-level winds that still supported minimal hurricane intensity. However, the SFMR-observed surface winds were somewhat lower, which is not surprising since the system has minimal deep convection and is over 24-25 deg SSTs. Given that the central pressure is still fairly low, 982 mb, Rosa is being maintained, perhaps generously, as a hurricane for this advisory. With increasing shear and cooler waters ahead for the system, weakening seems inevitable. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest HWRF model prediction, and shows Rosa weakening to a depression by the time it reaches the southwest United States. The initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/10 kt. The track forecast scenario remains essentially unchanged from the previous couple of advisory packages. The flow on the eastern side of a large mid-level trough approaching from the west should steer Rosa on a north-northeastward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. The wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on data from a recent ASCAT scatterometer overpass. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 25.2N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 28.1N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 32.3N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1800Z 37.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-30 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 25.2, -118.1 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 23
2018-09-30 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 387 WTPZ35 KNHC 302033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...ROSA EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 118.1W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 118.1 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: From late Sunday through Wednesday Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-09-30 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 421 FOPZ15 KNHC 302033 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) YUMA AZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 7 32(39) 9(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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