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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2018-09-01 16:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 866 FONT11 KNHC 011444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-01 16:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 1 the center of Florence was located near 14.8, -27.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 9

2018-09-01 16:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 423 WTNT31 KNHC 011443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 ...FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 27.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 27.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Florence will continue to move toward the open eastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 9

2018-09-01 16:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 424 WTNT21 KNHC 011443 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 27.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 27.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 27.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 32.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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