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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-03 10:49:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 936 FONT11 KNHC 030849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-03 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 211 WTNT21 KNHC 030848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 37.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 37.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 39.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 51.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 37.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-03 05:08:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 604 FONT11 KNHC 030308 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-03 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 02:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 03:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-03 04:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 741 WTNT41 KNHC 030235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast feature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the southern side of the convection. All of the satellite intensity estimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed at 45 kt. Although Florence is located in an environment of relatively low wind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C. The tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters beginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an environment of higher shear. These mixed signals suggest that Florence will likely change little in intensity or weaken slightly during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then Florence should be over much warmer waters. Therefore, strengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Florence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Although the track models all show a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large by the end of the forecast period. This spread appears to be primarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically coherent each model predicts Florence to be. Since the NHC forecast shows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days, this track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.9N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.7N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.2N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.6N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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