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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-02 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 652 WTNT21 KNHC 020253 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 30.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 30.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 30.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-02 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 651 FONT11 KNHC 020253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-01 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 20:36:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-01 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 386 WTNT41 KNHC 012034 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to improve with a circular area of convection near the center, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. The upper-level outflow is fair in all quadrants. Although the cloud pattern is better organized, the Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, and only support 40 kt at this time. Florence has a couple of more days embedded within a low-shear environment which supports strengthening, but it is also currently heading toward marginal SSTs. By the time the cyclone reaches warmer waters again, the shear is forecast to be unfavorable. The best option at this time is to show only a very modest strengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids. Florence has been moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 to 14 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days while Florence is located to the south of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. After that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The latter portion of the forecast is uncertain since the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north has been fluctuating from run to run in each model. At this time, the overall guidance has been shifting a little bit westward, suggesting a stronger ridge. On this basis, the NHC forecast was adjusted slightly in that direction at the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.6N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.2N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-01 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 978 FONT11 KNHC 012033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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