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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics

2018-09-02 10:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 08:54:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 09:22:05 GMT

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-09-02 10:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 838 WTNT41 KNHC 020851 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave imagery from a recent AMSR overpass indicates that a majority of the deep convection is located in the northern semicircle of the tropical storm, but its center is still well embedded within the central dense overcast. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB supports increasing the intensity to 50 kt. Some additional slight strengthening is still expected over the next day or so while Florence remains in a light shear environment and over marginal SSTs. Beginning in about 3 days, slow weakening is forecast due to an expected increase in wind shear associated with an extensive mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The intensity guidance is in generally good agreement through 120 h, and the official forecast remains near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now 290/13. The track guidance is fairly tightly packed for the first 48 h or so, with the spread increasing more quickly beyond that time. For the next couple of days, the subtropical ridge should keep Florence moving westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed. By day 3, a west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of the tropical storm. While all of the global models show this general scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is less certain. A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a more westward to west-northwestward track. For now, the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to all of the consensus models. This track is also generally in line with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.5N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-02 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 2 the center of Florence was located near 16.5, -31.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 12

2018-09-02 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 760 WTNT31 KNHC 020850 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 ...FLORENCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 31.4W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 31.4 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is possible today or tomorrow, but little overall change in strength is expected through Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-09-02 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 759 WTNT21 KNHC 020850 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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