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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-01 13:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINED FOR THOSE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 1 the center of Florence was located near 14.6, -27.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 8A
2018-09-01 13:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 723 WTNT31 KNHC 011134 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 800 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINED FOR THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 27.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 27.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could still produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across the southern Cabo Verde Islands today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-01 10:59:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 08:59:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-01 10:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 081 WTNT41 KNHC 010856 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 A recent SSMIS microwave pass has revealed that the cyclone has become much better organized with more pronounced convective banding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide ranging, spanning from T1.5/25 kt from SAB to T3.4/53 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Since the numbers overall have increased, and the structure has improved, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in closest agreement to the TAFB estimate, but this could be conservative. This makes the depression Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the season. Florence is moving west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, and should maintain this motion for the next 48 hours while traveling along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the storm is expected to reach a break in the ridge, causing it to slow down and turn northwestward by day 5. The biggest change noted among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the overall guidance envelope. The European model, in particular, swung significantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the break in the ridge quite as much. I'd like to see this trend continue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for now the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That said, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive recurvature scenario. The environment is mixed with positives and negatives for Florence's strengthening. For the first 3 days, vertical shear over Florence should be quite low, but the cyclone will also be moving through a less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment with marginal sea surface temperatures and decreasing mid-level moisture. After 3 days, the thermodynamic environment should begin to improve, but then the shear is forecast to strengthen. These conflicting signals point to only gradual strengthening, and the suite of intensity models aren't too far off from one another, nor from the previous NHC forecast. For that reason, no significant changes were made in this forecast package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.0N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.4N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-01 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 1 the center of Florence was located near 14.5, -26.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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