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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-09-03 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 656 WTNT21 KNHC 031441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 38.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 38.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 40.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 43.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 38.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-03 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 08:51:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 09:22:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-03 10:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 569 WTNT41 KNHC 030850 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 The structure of Florence has recovered overnight. Several recent microwave images indicate that the tropical storm's center is still dislocated to the south of most of the associated convection, but convective banding has increased. There is also evidence that Florence has developed better defined low-level inner-core. Satellite intensity estimates have increased and now range from 45 to 60 kt. As a compromise of the various estimates, the initial intensity has been raised slightly to 50 kt, but its worth noting that this increase is within the noise level of our ability to observe the intensity of tropical storms over the open ocean. Based on SHIPS diagnostics, the southwesterly shear affecting Florence could remain moderate for the next 12 h, and some slight intensification is possible. However, by 24 h, an increase in the shear should kick off a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify while it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear decreases. Given the improved current structure of Florence, the new official intensity forecast shows slight intensification for the first 12 h. Beyond that time, the models are in good agreement and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the relatively tight intensity guidance envelope. The tropical storm is still moving west-northwestward, at an estimated 14 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion is forecast by all the global models for the next couple of days. By the end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a turn toward the northwest, and the main source of uncertainty in the track forecast continues to be exactly when and to what extent Florence will make this turn. At this point I have no reason to depart from the various consensus models, and the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.0N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.3N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-03 10:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 3 the center of Florence was located near 18.0, -37.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-03 10:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 010 WTNT31 KNHC 030849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 37.5W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 37.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is expected to move generally westward to west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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