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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-03 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 2 the center of Florence was located near 17.9, -35.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-03 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 024 WTNT31 KNHC 030233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 35.9W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 35.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-03 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 023 WTNT21 KNHC 030233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 35.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 35.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 43.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 45.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 35.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-02 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 20:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-02 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 671 WTNT41 KNHC 022034 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence's cloud pattern is characterized by a low-level center partially displaced to the west of the coldest cloud tops, which have expanded in coverage recently. A blend of the latest satellite classifications supports maintaining an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory package. Little change in strength is expected for much of the forecast period, as Florence will be moving through an environment characterized by moderate shear and marginal SSTs for the next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, the SSTs begin to warm up, which should result in some restrengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is closest to the SHIPS model forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/15. Florence will be steered west-northwestward or westward for the next several days by the Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of north-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF on the right side of the envelope and the ECMWF, ECMWF mean and UKMET on the left. This spread is likely due to large differences in the vertical structure of the cyclone, with the ECMWF and UKMET having a much weaker vortex at 500 mb compared to the GFS in 3-4 days. Given the difficulty in forecasting these types of structural changes, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the multi-model consensus aids through the forecast period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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