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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-02 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 2 the center of Florence was located near 17.4, -34.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-02 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 412 WTNT31 KNHC 022033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 ...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 34.6W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.6 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected to continue through Wednesday with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-02 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 414 WTNT21 KNHC 022033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-02 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 435 FONT11 KNHC 022033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-02 16:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 647 WTNT41 KNHC 021449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence's convective cloud appearance has become rather disheveled this morning, with most of the deep convection sheared to the east and northeast of the now fully exposed but well-defined low-level circulation center. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, especially the objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on a blend of the available estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The initial motion is 285/16. Now that the system has weakened and become more vertically shallow, a more westward component of motion is expected throughout the forecast period. All but the GFS and HWRF models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and TCVN track consensus models. Analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is undercutting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery and by the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model, which show the shear to be less than 10 kt. GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery also reveals that Florence is ingesting considerable dry air in the western and southern quadrants, with the dry mid-level air having penetrated into the inner-core region. Since the vertical shear is expected to get a little worse over the next 3-4 days while the cyclone is moving over SSTs near 26 deg C, little change in strength is forecast through 96 h. By 120 h, however, Florence is forecast to move over warmer waters with SSTs exceeding 28 deg C and also into a weaker shear environment, which should allow for some re-strengthening to occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the one in the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN, through 96 h, and then is a little above the guidance at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.0N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.4N 35.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.9N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.4N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.4N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 24.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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