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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-03 16:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 14:43:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 15:22:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-09-03 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 541 WTNT41 KNHC 031443 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 While Florence's structure improved overnight, the cloud tops have warmed and the deep convection has thinned during the past several hours. The 12Z satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, but given recent trends the initial intensity is set at the low end of that range at 55 kt, although this is quite uncertain given the recent fluctuations in the cloud pattern. UW-CIMSS satellite diagnostics indicate that around 20 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting Florence, while the SHIPS analysis based on the GFS fields shows only about 10 kt. SSTs warm from this point forward along the forecast track, but shear is expected to be steady or strengthen, and the mid-level relative humidity values decrease to around 50 percent during the next 48 to 72 hours. Given these mixed factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows some possibility for strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a slow decay through 72 hours. Some restrengthening is forecast late in the period as SSTs warm above 28C and the atmospheric moisture increases. The NHC forecast is close to or a bit above the latest IVCN consensus aid and about 5 kt above the previous NHC forecast through 96 hours. The initial motion estimate is 285/14. Florence will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next 72 hours by the Atlantic subtropical ridge, followed by a northwestward turn at days 4 and 5. While there is large spread in the guidance between the HWRF on the right and the UKMET on the left, the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble means are more tightly clustered near the middle of the guidance envelope. Since the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, the new NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance. This forecast is a bit north of the previous NHC track given the initial position and lies a little south of the consensus aids to reflect less influence of the outlier HWRF model to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.6N 40.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 23.0N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-09-03 16:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 327 FONT11 KNHC 031442 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-03 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 3 the center of Florence was located near 18.3, -38.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 17
2018-09-03 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 230 WTNT31 KNHC 031442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 ...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 38.7W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, followed by a slow weakening trend starting on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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