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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-01 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 1 the center of Florence was located near 15.6, -29.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-01 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 739 WTNT31 KNHC 012033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 ...FLORENCE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 29.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 29.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-01 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 738 WTNT21 KNHC 012033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 29.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 29.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 28.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 31.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 33.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-01 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 14:53:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-01 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 056 WTNT41 KNHC 011444 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 Satellite images indicate that Florence's cloud pattern has improved in organization with the low-level center embedded within the convection, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. My predecessor wrote a very clear explanation of the reasoning of his track and intensity forecasts, and I do not think I can improve on it. The environment continues to be mixed with favorable and unfavorable conditions for Florence to strengthen. Currently, the shear is low and favors strengthening, but the ocean along the cyclone's forecast path is cooler. The latter condition should inhibit significant intensification. After 3 days, the opposite is anticipated -- the ocean will be warmer, but the shear will likely be high. Only at the very long range could both factors become favorable. The best option at this time is to show only a gradual strengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids. Florence is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days while Florence is located to the south of the subtropical ridge. After that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The confidence in the forecast is high during the next 3 days when the track guidance envelope is tightly packed. Thereafter, the confidence is not so high since the envelope widens and becomes bounded by the easternmost HWRF and the westernmost ECMWF models. Since the guidance envelope shifted a little bit westward, the NHC forecast was also adjusted slightly in that direction, primarily during the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 27.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.1N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.5N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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