je.st
news
Tag: florence
Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-02 10:50:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 637 FONT11 KNHC 020850 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-02 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 02:55:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 03:22:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-02 04:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 893 WTNT41 KNHC 020254 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 Florence continues to become better organized, with a circular central dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it is possible this is conservative. For the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear environment over sea surface temperatures near 26C. Most of the guidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast follows suit. After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and encounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to result in little change in strength during this period. The intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous advisory and remains near the consensus aids. Considering the lack of shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising if Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next couple of days. The initial motion is 290/12. The track guidance suggests a general west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4 days as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. Near the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion is expected. Despite the relatively straightforward steering pattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by 72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical models loosely clustered in between. However, the overall guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new track forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.0N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-02 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 1 the center of Florence was located near 16.0, -30.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-02 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 653 WTNT31 KNHC 020253 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 ...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 30.2W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 30.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday, with little change in strength expected Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] next »