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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 40
2018-09-09 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 101 WTNT21 KNHC 090843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 30SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 55.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-09 04:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:53:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:53:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 39
2018-09-09 04:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 736 WTNT41 KNHC 090252 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to form. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates tonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close to being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously observed by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less organized. There is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye feature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to recover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the hurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day or so. The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a good indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence of a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated. As indicated by my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a period of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence is expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours with additional strengthening thereafter. Florence is forecast to be an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States coast. Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents, and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt. All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast, the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles. One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts. 2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2018-09-09 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 558 FONT11 KNHC 090251 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 54(61) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 66(75) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 69(77) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 67(70) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 67(70) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 73(80) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 63(65) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-09 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE STILL MOVING SLOWLY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Florence was located near 24.6, -55.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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