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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-10 04:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Florence was located near 24.6, -57.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 43

2018-09-10 04:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 831 WTNT31 KNHC 100247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 57.7W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 43

2018-09-10 04:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 830 WTNT21 KNHC 100247 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 57.7W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 57.7W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 57.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 42

2018-09-09 22:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 270 WTNT41 KNHC 092053 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on this advisory. Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present, resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods, but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this trend. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt. There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the corrected-consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

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