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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-09 10:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:45:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:45:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 40
2018-09-09 10:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 701 WTNT41 KNHC 090844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Florence's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better organized overnight, with an increase in convection near the center and a developing central dense overcast feature. However, the cloud tops are not particularly cold and the outer banding features remain fragmented likely due to some nearby dry mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65 kt, so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, just shy of hurricane strength. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the storm later today, and that data should provide a better assessment of Florence's intensity. The upper-level outflow is becoming well established over the cyclone, and the global model guidance indicates that Florence will remain in a very favorable upper-level environment while the cyclone moves over the warm waters over the southwestern Atlantic. These conditions favor strengthening with the only apparent negative factor being nearby dry air, which will likely remain away from the inner core due to the low shear conditions. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for a period of rapid strengthening within the next 12-36 hours, and Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday with additional strengthening early in the week. This means that Florence is likely to be a very powerful hurricane as it moves over the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the various intensity consensus aids and is very similar to the previous official forecast. Florence is currently located between a couple of mid-level ridges and a slow westward motion is expected today. Another strong high pressure ridge is forecast to build to the north of Florence on Monday, which should cause the storm to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered for the first 2-3 days with increasing spread thereafter. The GFS remains along the right side of the guidance envelope with the HWRF and ECMWF bracketing the left edge. It should be noted that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are a little to the left or west of their operational runs. As a result, the NHC track forecast lies to the left of the TVCA multi-model consensus, but is not as far to the west as the FSSE and HCCA corrected consensus models at day 5. The models are in agreement that Florence is likely to slow down near the end of the forecast period as a blocking high pressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late this week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts. 2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2018-09-09 10:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 468 FONT11 KNHC 090843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 58(63) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 46(71) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 62(76) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 54(84) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 49(57) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 57(86) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 51(58) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 65(80) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 64(78) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 57(85) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 53(60) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 60(71) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 54(74) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 52(60) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-09 10:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Florence was located near 24.5, -55.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 40
2018-09-09 10:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 442 WTNT31 KNHC 090843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 55.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid intensification is likely to begin by tonight. Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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