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Home › florence

 

Tag: florence

Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-10 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Florence was located near 24.9, -58.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 44

2018-09-10 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 225 WTNT31 KNHC 100853 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday. Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Florence Graphics

2018-09-10 04:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 02:50:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 03:22:14 GMT

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 43

2018-09-10 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 663 WTNT41 KNHC 100248 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between 2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt. The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact, the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the new official advisory track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models. Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air, rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing, and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this trend. The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43

2018-09-10 04:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 296 FONT11 KNHC 100248 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 25(45) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 24(52) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 19(54) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 19(55) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 19(67) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 33(81) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 28(82) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 63(75) 7(82) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 6(44) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 25(85) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 27(59) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 29(57) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 70(73) 15(88) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 16(63) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 74(87) 6(93) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 9(66) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 9(43) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 76(87) 6(93) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 10(68) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 10(46) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 74(77) 13(90) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 17(68) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 15(48) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 72(74) 15(89) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 19(68) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 16(45) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 76(83) 7(90) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 13(69) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 12(48) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 25(72) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 17(83) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 19(57) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 13(35) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 68(71) 10(81) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 13(51) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 18(68) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 16(50) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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