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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-09 16:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 14:50:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 15:22:11 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2018-09-09 16:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 361 FONT11 KNHC 091449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 54(60) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 40(49) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 38(48) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 45(59) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 59(73) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 30(74) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 60(76) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 51(82) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 32(87) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 37(59) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 35(88) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 40(61) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 51(85) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 49(61) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 52(85) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 48(60) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 36(87) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 44(67) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 51(64) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 48(77) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 41(80) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 41(64) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-09 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Florence was located near 24.4, -56.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 41
2018-09-09 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 431 WTNT31 KNHC 091448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 56.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 41
2018-09-09 16:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 623 WTNT21 KNHC 091443 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 75.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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