je.st
news
Tag: xavier
Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-11-06 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060237 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-05 21:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 20:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 21:21:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-11-05 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the circulation will be able to produce persistent organized convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4. The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-11-05 21:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-05 21:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 19.0, -106.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
xavier
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] next »