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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-11-05 09:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050841 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage and becoming more separated from the low-level center. Somewhat surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC indicated peak winds of around 50 kt. This suggests that Xavier may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday afternoon and evening. Based on these data, the intensity was adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains at that value for now. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward during the next 12 to 24 hours. As the system weakens it is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days. The track guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-05 09:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 18.4, -105.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 11
2018-11-05 09:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050840 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.9W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Xavier is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast today. A westward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-11-05 09:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050840 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-11-05 09:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050839 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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