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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-11-05 15:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 051431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics

2018-11-05 12:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 11:39:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 09:21:50 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)

2018-11-05 12:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 18.4, -106.0 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 11A

2018-11-05 12:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051138 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 600 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 106.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Xavier is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast today. A westward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics

2018-11-05 09:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 08:43:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 09:21:50 GMT

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