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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)

2018-11-05 03:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Nov 4 the center of Xavier was located near 18.5, -105.7 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 10

2018-11-05 03:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 ...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 105.7W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 105.7 West. Xavier is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast tonight and on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-11-05 03:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-11-05 03:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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