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Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-06-28 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-06-28 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.1W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.1W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-28 04:40:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 02:40:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 03:23:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-06-28 04:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this evening and is now separated from the low-level center. A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be generous. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. A west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to three days. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus and the more southern ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-28 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Dora was located near 19.7, -112.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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