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Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 9
2017-06-27 04:44:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 108.3W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to pass over or just north of Socorro Island on Tuesday, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula by early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-06-27 04:43:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270243 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane DORA Graphics
2017-06-26 23:24:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:24:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:24:44 GMT
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Hurricane DORA Graphics
2017-06-26 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 20:46:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 20:46:39 GMT
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Hurricane DORA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-06-26 22:41:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262041 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Since the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably eroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier embedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye structure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates have been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been increased slightly to 80 kt. The initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global and regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of Dora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a west-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120 hours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around the previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther to the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the forecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. Dora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the negative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its north. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next 6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity to warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with very favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the weakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm by 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model IVCN. Although the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from mainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND 36H 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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