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Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-06-27 10:30:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270830 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Dora Graphics
2017-06-27 04:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 02:49:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 03:22:03 GMT
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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-06-27 04:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270246 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm very soon. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day or so. After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay. Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-06-27 04:44:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270244 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 30 39(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 110W 50 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 75(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 42(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 28(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-27 04:44:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 the center of Dora was located near 18.4, -108.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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